A thoughtful newsletter, as always. And thought-provoking.
One caution. You cited the Surgeon General's report, noting its claims that loneliness increases the risk of premature death by nearly thirty percent, posing a health risk as deadly as smoking fifteen cigarettes a day. That made me curious, and I read the report. It does indeed make those claims.
But there is no scientific evidence to support those claims. There is some evidence, but it is weak evidence derived solely from statistical analysis of survey results. That kind of evidence is unreliable, and any claims based on it should be taken as opinion rather than fact. Only rigorous analysis called "causal inference" can turn statistics into scientific evidence, and that kind of analysis is impractical here.
Mark Twain captured well the danger of relying on statistics when he said in Chapters from My Autobiography (chapter 20, published in the North American Review on July 5, 1907 at page 471): "Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'" {Benjamin Disraeli never said anything like this in any known writing.]
Politicians like our Surgeon General love to use statistical associations to beguile us and "prove" their points. Nikki Haley did this in the recent Republican debate. She said that "for every 30 minutes that someone watches TikTok every day they become 17% more antisemitic, more pro-Hamas based on doing that." If you track down that "fact" you find it to be fiction. It comes from a statistical analysis by an Australian named Anthony Goldbloom that is pure bunkum.
Loneliness is a problem, but we do not know how much it affects our public health. There is no way to know. We can only guess, and when we do we should be careful to warn that we are only guessing instead of presenting our guesses as fact.
Surgeon General Vivek Murthy does not do that. His report says: "Loneliness and social isolation increase the risk for premature death by 26% and 29% respectively. More broadly, lacking social connection can increase the risk for premature death as much as smoking up to 15 cigarettes a day." To me, those figures are deceptive, seeming to indicate precision when they are based on data that is not precise at all.
Not quite the same thing, but when I was 12 years old, I read a "filler" in the Lubbock Avalance Journal newspaper that has guided me ever since: "Live your life so that when you're all alone you're in good company." Anonymous
Another wonderful and thought provoking installment. Thank you. And Happy Hanukkah to you and your wonderful wife.
FYI - Candles should be inserted from right to left and lit from left to right. If the photos at the top are what you are doing at home, you've got it backwards.
Thanks for the feedback, Jerry. Over all these years, my wife and I have been doing it exactly as her parents did it--and now we learn that they had it wrong. Next year, we will definitely be doing it in the (correct) traditional manner!
Just a note to wish you a safe, happy, and healthy holiday season - from one MOT to another (honorary).
I have noticed that since you switched to this Substack, your introductory remarks and thoughts have become more detailed and have given you a broader canvas upon which to paint your thoughts. Keep on keepin' on.
Thanks for weighing in on this week's theme, D.J. I believe I agree with everything you wrote!
A thoughtful newsletter, as always. And thought-provoking.
One caution. You cited the Surgeon General's report, noting its claims that loneliness increases the risk of premature death by nearly thirty percent, posing a health risk as deadly as smoking fifteen cigarettes a day. That made me curious, and I read the report. It does indeed make those claims.
But there is no scientific evidence to support those claims. There is some evidence, but it is weak evidence derived solely from statistical analysis of survey results. That kind of evidence is unreliable, and any claims based on it should be taken as opinion rather than fact. Only rigorous analysis called "causal inference" can turn statistics into scientific evidence, and that kind of analysis is impractical here.
Mark Twain captured well the danger of relying on statistics when he said in Chapters from My Autobiography (chapter 20, published in the North American Review on July 5, 1907 at page 471): "Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'" {Benjamin Disraeli never said anything like this in any known writing.]
Politicians like our Surgeon General love to use statistical associations to beguile us and "prove" their points. Nikki Haley did this in the recent Republican debate. She said that "for every 30 minutes that someone watches TikTok every day they become 17% more antisemitic, more pro-Hamas based on doing that." If you track down that "fact" you find it to be fiction. It comes from a statistical analysis by an Australian named Anthony Goldbloom that is pure bunkum.
Loneliness is a problem, but we do not know how much it affects our public health. There is no way to know. We can only guess, and when we do we should be careful to warn that we are only guessing instead of presenting our guesses as fact.
Surgeon General Vivek Murthy does not do that. His report says: "Loneliness and social isolation increase the risk for premature death by 26% and 29% respectively. More broadly, lacking social connection can increase the risk for premature death as much as smoking up to 15 cigarettes a day." To me, those figures are deceptive, seeming to indicate precision when they are based on data that is not precise at all.
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis, John. I appreciated the clarification, and I believe other subscribers will as well.
Not quite the same thing, but when I was 12 years old, I read a "filler" in the Lubbock Avalance Journal newspaper that has guided me ever since: "Live your life so that when you're all alone you're in good company." Anonymous
A good one, Harvey. Thanks. I'll enter it in my DMDMQ sections on (Being) ALONE as well as LONELINESS.
Mardy,
Another wonderful and thought provoking installment. Thank you. And Happy Hanukkah to you and your wonderful wife.
FYI - Candles should be inserted from right to left and lit from left to right. If the photos at the top are what you are doing at home, you've got it backwards.
Thanks for the feedback, Jerry. Over all these years, my wife and I have been doing it exactly as her parents did it--and now we learn that they had it wrong. Next year, we will definitely be doing it in the (correct) traditional manner!
Just a note to wish you a safe, happy, and healthy holiday season - from one MOT to another (honorary).
I have noticed that since you switched to this Substack, your introductory remarks and thoughts have become more detailed and have given you a broader canvas upon which to paint your thoughts. Keep on keepin' on.
Thanks for your kind words, my friend, and the eloquent way in which you expressed them. Substack was the best thing that happened to me in 2023!
Good one!
Thanks, David.
LONEL Y
Very clever, Louis. Very clever indeed!